After having only college football last weekend, this
weekend we also get week 1 of the NFL.
For the NFL games I maintain multiple power rating systems that give you
a different look at potential outcomes.
A brief explanation of these as I will be referring to them throughout
the season:
1.
Ratings system – this is exactly as it
sounds. I rate the teams 1 -32 based on
season performance. I reference multiple
sites, as well as my own stats to determine the order. Each spot in the ranking has a predetermined
number of points.
2.
Vegas – This is a system that is built in a more
traditional power rating sense by the sharps out in vegas, hence its name. It’s a stats based system that then ranks the
teams with each rank receiving a predetermined number of points. The points for each ranked spot is different
than that used in ratings system
3.
Past 3 – this is system that calculates a teams
upcoming performance based on that teams performance in the past 3 years. I look at a number of different stats, assign
them points per, calculate everything and spit out a number
4.
Last year – this is just like the past 3 except
I’m using the averages from last year only (I will be adding a this year system
based on current year stats only)
5.
Game Expectations – again just like it
sounds. I review team performance on
both offense and defense for the year and enter in projections for specific
stats. For instance, a strong rushing
team is facing a team that allows a lot of rushing yards per game so far this
season I’m going to enter a higher than average number of running plays and
yards for that team. Each stat I enter
gets multiplied by a set number of points for each stat, and then everything is
added together.
To compare 2 teams you look at the difference of projected
points for each rating system, adjust for home field and then subtract them
from each other. The difference between
that number and the line represents the amount of value. I track the results of value number for each
rating system. This allows to see which
are good and which are bad. Most people
assume a positive number is good, but that’s not always the case.
Now that we got that out of the way, lets get to week 1
picks.
Green Bay (-6.5) at Chicago:
Everybody seems to like Green Bay in this game, and
rightfully so. They hit key numbers in
my ratings system and past 3 system.
Chicago defense allowed a lot of passing yards last year, and they didn’t
really address that issue this off season.
The Bears also have a new head coach and a new offensive system that
wants to run the ball more. The problem
with that is the offensive line isn’t that good. Nelson is out for the Packers but that shouldn’t
matter as they will be able to pound the ball with Eddie Lacy.
New Orleans at Arizona (-2.5):
This only hits a key number in one of my rating systems, but
NO doesn’t get any checks either. The
Saints are changing things up offensively, but are now dealing with
injuries. It will be interesting to see
how they perform without their most consistent weapon who they traded to
Seattle in the offseason. Arizona gets
Palmer back under center and that should help offense tremendously as they
scored nearly a touchdown more per game when he played last year. The defense in Arizona is sick once again,
which will challenge NO even more. Look
for the Cardinals to cruise in this one.
Baltimore at Denver (-4.5):
This is a situation where you have to take the points. The defense is the dominate side of the ball
for both teams, and in low scoring games you always take the points. Denver offensive line is banged up and lost a
starter in free agency. They also lost
their top tight end in free agency.
Baltimore is always strong, and they travel well. They also won recently in Denver, so playing
here is not a problem. Also, the Ravens
hit a key number in 3 of my systems, which is a very good indicator.
Philadelphia (-3) at Atlanta:
Home dog, home dog, home dog. I love home dog, especially on Monday
night. Yes the Eagles are going to
score, but so can this Falcons team.
This is going to be a shoot out.
Atlanta hits key numbers in 2 of my rating systems. The Eagles were dominate in the pre-season,
but I don’t really put stock in those games.
Take the points.
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