Week 1 for the NFL got off to a much better start than
college football week 1. I gave you 4
games that I thought represent good value, those 4 games went 3-1 ATS, I’ll
take it. Here is a recap of what
happened and why it happened.
Green Bay (-6.5) at Chicago:
This game was much closer than I thought. Lots of plays ran by Chicago. The Bears ended up with 33 rush plays and 36
pass plays for 69 total. Compare that to
the 53 total plays for Green Bay, and things start to become clearer. Then the rushing yards really jumped out at
me, Chicago had 189 rushing yards. And
last but not least Chicago had more passing yards than Green Bay, they
basically beat them in every statistical category. The Bears did have an interception, which hurt
them. Fox is clearly instituting the
power run game in Chicago, makes sense with the WR group they have. I just didn’t expect these results. Maybe I overestimated the Packer
defense. Maybe the Bears o-line isn’t as
bad as suggested. Maybe, maybe
maybe. I do know we will learn more
about these 2 teams in week 2 with the Pack hosting the Seahawks and the Bears
hosting the Cardinals. Now those are 2
real defensive teams. We still got the
win though, so that’s all that matters.
1-0
New Orleans at Arizona (-2.5):
Time and again the teams that have success in the NFL run
the ball. Look at a couple of the
biggest surprises in week 1, Buffalo 36 rush att; San Francisco 39 rush att;
Washington had 37 and the aforementioned Bears had 33. Two of those teams pulled off outright upsets
as an underdog and the other 2 kept it a whole lot closer than the public
thought. Why am I talking about this
here? Because New Orleans doesn’t run
the ball. You need to run to control the
game and the clock, that’s how you win in the NFL. You simply can’t out score everybody. New Orleans did throw for 354 yards, but
Arizona threw for 307, so no real advantage, except when you realize Arizona
did that on 16 less passing attempts. In
the end this played out like I thought.
2-0
Baltimore at Denver (-4.5):
I said this was going to be a defensive game, and boy was
it. Denver had 219 total yards while the
Ravens only managed 173. Talk about a
snooze fest. Denver won the turnover
battle 2 to 1. Even though it seemed
like every time I turned around Baltimore was punting again and Denver would
put together a mini drive, the Ravens still had a chance to win at the end. They had the ball and were driving. Didn’t work out though and the Broncos
covered. 2-1
Philadelphia (-3) at Atlanta:
Remember a couple games ago when I talked about running the
ball, insert those comments here. The
Eagles only attempted 16 rushes.
16! They threw the ball 52
times. Atlanta was much more balanced
with 35 runs and 34 passes. You know
what else that does for your team? Keeps
the defense fresh, which is really important against the up-tempo play of the
Eagles. The Eagles only threw for 46
more yards despite 18 more passing attempts than the Falcons. This game really could’ve went either way, as
both teams had 2 interceptions. The key
to the Falcons getting the win was the missed field goal by Philadelphia. 3-1
See the NFL is easy.
It’s all about game control.
Control the ball you control the game.
You control the ball by running it.
Look how the Cowboys turned around their team in 2014 by being more
balanced on offense. And they are just
the most recent example. Hell I listed 4
above that did it in week 1. It’s not a
mistake.
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