College Football Week 3 Thursday and Friday games

It’s almost time for week 3 to kick off in the 2015 college football season.  When looking at the games that are happening Thursday and Friday night it looks like a decent line up for some action.  Then you take a closer look and things aren’t that clear.  I’m not taking any of these games, I’ll save the picks for better matchups on Saturday.  But of course I’m opinionated and I have a few extra minutes today so here are my thoughts on the 3 games.

Thursday night

Clemson (-6.5) at Louisville:

There are too many unknown variables taking place in this game.  At first glance this looks like an easy call of laying the chalk with Clemson, but you have to ask yourself, why is that line so low?  Louisville has not played up to expectations.  Sure they came back and finished strong against Auburn, only losing by 7, but that is now questionable after the stinker Auburn had at home last week against Jacksonville State.  Clemson is on the road for the first time, and it’s a short week with travel.  Defense is still inexperienced as first 2 games were against an FCS team and App State, and the only out gained App State by 94 yards, so that final score is a bit misleading.  They did benefit from finishing +2 in turnovers.  If Louisville took care of the ball better last week it could’ve ended a lot differently.  Who knows how this one is going to play out. 

Friday Night

Florida State (-7.5) at Boston College:

This will go 1 of 2 ways.  Florida State blows out BC, or BC upsets Florida State.  Boston College is really untested as they have only played FCS teams at home.  Florida State was in more of a battle than initially anticipated last week against USF.  Maybe BC really is good.  Maybe Florida State will look to make a statement in their road opener.  The computer actually gives Florida State 3.5 points of value as it sees FSU winning by 10.  If you absolutely have to make a play either Thursday or Friday, then Florida State should be it.  I’m not taking this pick, but it’s the best play of the 3.

New Mexico at Arizona State (-27):

Arizona State is another unsolvable riddle at this time.  They are definitely playing below pre-season expectations.  New Mexico is horrible in it’s first road game of the year, especially when it’s against a power 5 conference school.  They lost at home to Tulsa by 19 last week in a game they were out gained by 210 yards, yikes!  I think Arizona State runs away in this game, but my computer projects a different outcome with New Mexico only losing by 24.  While that number is close enough to the line that it seems ASU is fairly priced, the line has been coming down, and it’s really only a field goal difference.  A meaningless touchdown for a back door cover is quite possible here.  No pick

So no action for the weekday games, but check back for the Saturday picks.

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