Welcome to week 3 of college football. After a mediocre first week, I bounced back
with a solid performance in week 2 that I’m hoping will lead to an even more
improved week 3. I have a full slate of
games that I like this Saturday, so lets get to it. First, a record recap. Currently at 12-9-1 on the season. I have 9 regular plays and 3 bonus plays for
you.
NC State (-18) at Old Dominion:
First my computer is calling for this to be right around a
17 point win for NC State, but I still like this game, and think that ODU will
keep it closer and cover the spread. NC
State does get it’s top RB from last season back this week after being
suspended the first 2 games of season.
But the hot RB is on ODU side having 200+ yards rushing in each of first
2 games. The crowd should be a factor
here as this is the first time a team from a power 5 conference has played at
ODU. Finally, NC State is only 1-15 ATS
in last 16 games on the road as a favorite, and 12 of those games they
lost. Take the home team and the points.
Central Michigan at Syracuse (-7):
This one is more in my computers wheelhouse of value. At this line you get 5.5 points of value as
the computer thinks Syracuse wins by 12 or 13 (it says 12.5, but that can’t
happen). Last year Syracuse destroyed
CMU on the road 40-3. Not much has
changed about these 2 teams since then, so there is no reason to believe that
suddenly the Chippewa’s are only 7 points worse on the road. It’s the first road game of the season for
CMU and the carrier dome isn’t the easiest place to play. Home team wins big.
Auburn at LSU (-6.5):
Line seems kind of low doesn’t it? Smells a bit like a trap for LSU backers but
I disagree, it’s a great opportunity buy.
LSU looked to have a blow out win on there hands last week at Miss.
State, but let them sneak back into and almost lost the game. Auburn has it’s own problems. They couldn’t put away Louisville in week 1
and had their hands full in week 2 against Jacksonville state. Maybe that will be a wake up call for them,
but I doubt it. This LSU defense will be
toughest test of the young season so far, and it’s really hard to go to LSU
home field and win. Especially for
Auburn who has lost last 7 at LSU by average of 18 points. My computer is calling for a home victory by
17, so that’s 10 points of value you get here.
I like value
UTSA at Oklahoma State (-24.5):
Ok so UTSA was able to hold tight against Arizona, then last
week at home they showed their true colors in getting blown out by 27 against
Kansas State. Oklahoma State opened on
the road at CMU, and had an impressive win, even if they didn’t cover the
number. Last week they looked better
against Central Arkansas, and this week I expect them to take another step
forward. Look for Gundy to light up the
scoreboard this week. Oh did I mention
UTSA is least experienced team in nation and Ok St is most experienced? Finally my computer calls for OK St to win by
30, so look for them to get a 4 touchdown victory.
Nebraska at Miami FL (-3):
I’m going against the grain on this one. Lots of experts are backing the Cornhuskers,
but I think that is a mistake. Take the
home team here. First road game of
season for Nebraska, and while Miami had some trouble to start last week
against Florida Atlantic, they rolled in the end. Miami simply has to much talent, and Kaya is
playing at the top of his game. The
computer says Miami should win by 9, so at -3 you get 6 points of value, you
know in case you like a couple of extra field goals.
Georgia Tech (-2.5) at Notre Dame:
ND QB Zaire is out, and the ball goes to a freshman to lead
the team. GT runs the option offense,
and teams have a hard time preparing for it.
But ND plays an option team or 2 every year so they have to be prepared
for it. Plus in the end, this is still a
very talented Notre Dame team. My
computer is calling for ND to win by 10, giving them over 12 points of value,
but I don’t think the computer knows ND starting QB is hurt. Normally ND is over priced at home because of
the large number of supporters they get every week thinking they are better
than they actually are. This seems to be
an over correction though by Vegas. Look
for ND to get the win at home.
Colorado (-3) vs Colorado State (neutral site):
In state rivalry match always makes for an interesting
game. You just need to go with the
better team, and this year that’s the Buffalo.
Seems like each year this game is won by the team that lost the previous
year. If that continues then it’s
Colorado’s turn, and they’ve won 5 of the 7 meetings in Denver. The computer likes CU too, as it thinks they
will win by 9. Colorado gets the check.
San Jose State at Oregon State (-6.5)
First do yourself a favor and when placing your wager on
SJST pay the extra juice and buy the half point to get SJST at +7. Next, I’m not sure why OSU is favored in this
game. My computer has SJST rated higher
than OSU, so even giving OSU 4 points for home field they should be a -1 point
favorite at the most. Not 7. It’s lopsided, like EMU at Wyoming last week
and Charlotte at Georgia State in week 1.
Stanford at USC (-9.5):
I don’t think there is anything that can stop the USC
offense. They are clicking on all
cylinders right now. Stanford is up and
down. They were sluggish against a very
tough Northwestern team, and lost on the road.
Then they showed a strong performance last week, but that was against a
team that had to travel like 3,000+ miles to get there. I actually don’t know how far they traveled,
but Orlando FL to Northern Cali can’t be a short trip. I think this is another game where Stanford
will struggle. My computer calls for USC
to win by 2 touchdowns, so this represents great value here.
Bonus Plays, because why the fuck not?
Nevada at Texas A&M (-34):
Last week I asked you if Texas A&M could beat Ball State
by 5 touchdowns, and the answer was yes, yes they can. I ask the same question this week, but use
Nevada instead of Ball State. Nevada has
played 2 home games this year, the first against UC Davis and then last week
against Arizona. Arizona owned the game,
and put up 570 yards of offense!! If
Arizona can gain 570 yards on the road against Nevada, I have a hard time
imagining that Nevada will fare any better against Texas A&M on the
road. A&M gained 425 yards against
Arizona State, and then put up 503 yards gainst Ball State. I’m smelling 600 yards of offense this
week. Oh and did I mention that Nevada’s
QB is making only his 4th start, and his 1st road
start? Imagine your first road start
with the 12th man in the stands.
My computer says it should be more like a 40 point difference between
these schools, and I agree. A&M
blows them out of the water.
Utah State at Washington (-6.5):
Last week I went against Utah State on the road against in
state rival Utah. It was close, but Utah
State proved me wrong and got the cover, but Utah got the win. Washington bounced back from a week 1 road
loss at Boise State to demolish Sacramento State at home 49-0. They also gained 544 yards on offense. This is the second straight week of travel
for Utah State, but this time they actually have to leave the state borders for
a long haul flight up the west coast. My
computer thinks the line should be double what it currently is, as it suggests
Washington will win by 13. However, none
of that really swayed my decision. My
decision was made by the fact that Washington head coach Peterson, who used to
coach at Boise State, is very familiar with Utah State as he played them every
year. Oh and he beat them by an average
of 34 points. Lay the small chalk and
take the home team from the power 5 conference.
South Florida at Maryland (-7):
South Florida held there own against Florida State last week. In fact the game was much closer than the
score showed as they were only outgained by 167 yards. The offense has struggled at times this year,
but look for that luck to change against a porus Maryland defense. Maryland allowed 692 yards of offense at home
last week to Bowling Green. 692! That’s a decent number if it’s your credit
score, but not yards allowed. Anyways,
my computer actually has South Florida rated better than Maryland by couple of
points, so even after adjusting for home field for Maryland, they should be a
-3 at best and most likely -2. Take the
extra points and watch USF win this game.
That’s the line up for this weekend, 12 games in total. Why did I do the bonus plays? Well because it’s my website and I can do
whatever I want. Will I count them in my
totals? Yes, I mean I’m playing them and
recommending them. Basically what
happened was I picked out the 15 games my computer likes the most. I did my research and widdeled it down to 9
games that I really liked and then 3 that I liked, but just not as much as the
first 9. So what I did was play the
first 9 at normal amounts, and then the 3 bonus plays at 75% of a normal bet. Good luck this weekend. And check back tomorrow for week 2 NFL picks.
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