College Football week 5 weekday

We get 3 games on Friday this week, so that gives us 4 total weekday games in week 5.  I’m breaking down all 4 games.  I have a pick for the Temple at Charlotte game.  Didn’t have it until I wrote this.  Check back Friday for this weekends picks.

Thursday

Miami FL (-6.5) at Cincinnati:

This is a very intriguing game, and I’m excited to watch it.  I’m sitting it out action wise, but it should be a good show.  Miami FL comes in off a bye, so they get a few extra days rest.  Cincy played last Thursday, so they have a full week in between games.  This should be an offensive juggernaut, as Cincinnati is averaging 600+ yards per game this year, while Miami is at 472.  The Bearcats have a QB making first road start of career, as Kiel is banged up and been replaced last 2 games.  Moore slung the ball around well last week tossing for 557 yards.  It was against a weak Memphis defense though, so no surprise.  Miami defensive secondary will be the best the Bearcats have faced so far, but Miami hasn’t really faced a team that can throw it around either.  The Hurricanes are good at running the ball averaging 184 yards a game, while Cincinnati is allowing 210 rushing yards a game.  My system is calling for a game around 7 points, so no real value on either side.

Friday

Memphis (-8) at USF:

Another interesting matchup as Memphis has struggled on defense and USF doesn’t have much of an offense.  The Bulls have been able to run the ball, but unfortunately they couldn’t convert into points.  They have a hard time keeping the QB upright as they’ve allowed 10 sacks on the season.  USF is also off a bye and playing at home.  Memphis played last Thursday, so playing on 8^th day.  The situational matchup in my system favors USF, and while I expect them to finally get their passing game going against this leaking defense, I haven’t seen enough from them this season to pull the trigger.  Someone is betting on USF though as this has come down from Memphis (-9.5).  Passing on this game.

Temple (-22) at Charlotte:

I’m conflicted on this game, because it was a fantastic situational play at Charlotte +24, but dropping below the 4 scores to current line at -22 isn’t as enticing.  While Charlotte opened the season well, they got a dose of reality at Middle Tennessee 2 weeks ago.  They then returned home last week to face Florida Atlantic, and they couldn’t get any offense going.  Sure they held Florida Atlantic to 17 points and less than 200 yards of total offense, but that’s Florida Atlantic, and if they can shut down Charlotte’s offense on the road then watch out this week.  Charlotte will be lucky to score against Temple.  Charlotte has give up 17 sacks this season, that’s an average of 4 a game.  Talk about drive killers, and Temple showed they can get after the QB against Penn State.  Charlotte is also -9 in turnovers on the season, so they have a bit of trouble hanging onto the ball.  Temple is coming off a bye, so they are rested and ready to play.  I think I just talked myself into pulling the trigger on Temple.

UConn at BYU (-18.5):

I was a backer of BYU last week against Michigan, but their magic fairy ride was over.  Travelling east is always difficult.  Now they return home to face UConn, who has to travel on short rest after playing last Saturday, in a tough defeat to Navy.  UConn has been strong on defense, but weak on offense.  I’m not sure if that’s a reflection of their ability or the quality of their opponents though.  They did play Missouri, but that offense has it’s own issues going on this year.  UConn has played 2 of the military teams, an FCS school and the aforementioned Missouri.  My system has the difference between these 2 teams right around the current line, so any value would be in how much you value home field for BYU.  While I do believe BYU will win, I’m not sure to lay this many points with them.  Sure I could take UConn, but they have a chance of getting blown out.  This is a coin flip game.

NFL Week 3 Monday Night Chaser

It was a good Sunday, with the picks I released yesterday going 4-1.  I even said that I had a pick for tonights Monday game between Kansas City and Green Bay.  Depending on what happens with the line, I might take some action on this game, but if it doesn’t hit the number that I want then I’m going to sit it out and count my cash from this weekend. 

Last week, in a Thursday night game, Kansas City fell apart against Denver.  When they held onto the ball, they used it very well and moved down the field.  But they couldn’t hold on to the ball, having 3 fumbles and 2 interceptions.  That’s more of a testament to the skill of Denver’s defense than it is a case against Kansas City though, just ask Detroit and Baltimore, who are 2 other victims of that Denver defense.  Hell I even used Denver’s defense in my Draft Kings lineup this weekend, and they didn’t let me down.

Green Bay has been a bit sluggish on offense so far this year, with the passing attack not as explosive as seasons past. Green Bay is only averaging 341 yards of offense per game, while their defense is giving up 363 yards a game.  That’s not typical for a 2-0 team.  They struggled to slow down the Bears offense, which was a one man wrecking crew of Matt Forte.  They got some help last week against Seattle getting an interception and a fumble recovery. 

Kansas City has a few extra days of rest after playing last Thursday, while Green Bay was the Sunday night game against Seattle.  That was definitely a game they had circled for a long time, and perhaps were looking ahead to when playing Chicago.  They wanted revenge on the Seahawks for the way they’ve been beaten the last couple of years by that team, so they were definitely up for that game.  It will be hard for them to match that intensity. 

In reviewing the results from my 5 different rating systems, it’s a mixed bag.  All 5 of the systems find value in Packers, but 3 of those end up being key numbers for the Chiefs.  Yes, that sounds fucked up, but sometimes teams can be overvalued based on historical performance, and when that happens they don’t have success ATS.  I believe that is the situation here, Green Bay is overvalued.  Add in the factors that are favoring Kansas City and this looks like a no brainer.  The line has been moving around, but Green Bay is a very public team and I expect more money to roll in on them moving the line further in our favor.  I currently see Kansas City (+6.5) at even money.  This tells me that Vegas doesn’t want to put it at a touchdown for a reason and are starting to play with the money to entice action on Kansas City.  I think you will see +7 closer to game time, but that’s what the wise guys are waiting for too, so it might not last long.  Just buy the half point now, it’s already discounted without juice on the team.

NFL week 3 bonus

Here is a bonus pick for you.  Not sure why I didn't see this earlier, but Pittsburgh -1 at St. Louis looks really really good.  Leveon Bell is back this week, which will help the Steelers run the ball on top of that explosive passing attack that they have.  They tore up San Francisco's defense last week, which I actually think is better than St. Louis's.  Sure the Rams have been playing to the level of their competition over the past 2 years, especially at home, but I don't think they have the fire power to keep up in this game.  Against Seattle they needed a lot of help from special teams and trick plays.  That won't happen this week.  Sure they get Gurley to play in this game, but he isn't going to be the workhorse back that they need, he will be limited, probably 10 - 15 touches at most, just to get the feel of the game back for him, and so they can monitor his knee.  I'm BIG on the Steelers.

NFL week 3

NFL week 3.  Week 2 was not a good week for my NFL picks.  I went 0-4 last week giving me a 2 week record of 3-5.  Not good at all.  When I reviewed my stats and updated the scores in my database, I noticed that one of power rating systems went 10-6, and the rest were around 9-7 or 8-8 (2 were 8-6 as they didn’t find value in a few games).  Seeing this gives me hope.  I was unlucky enough to pick 4 losers out of a combination of results from my power ratings, even though none of them posted a losing record on the week.  Unbelievable.  The systems are working fine, it’s the picker that is a fucking loser.  This week I bring in my 5^th power rating system, which I call game expectations.  Basically what I do with this system is look at team tendencies from last year and compare to this year and to their opponent.  This helps in figuring out what the team is probably going to do.  For example, team A has had success running the ball this year and are playing team B which has struggled to stop they run.  In this instance I would enter information for team A to be more successful running the football this week than they have in the past.  Same applies for passing, turnovers and field goals.  Without further ado, here are my picks for this weeks games.

Tampa Bay at Houston (-6.5):

I went to the well with Houston last week and it cost me.  I just didn’t see the Panthers offense be able to generate enough points to win that game.  Cam Newton proved me wrong, as he continues to put that team on his back and carry them to victory.  Tampa Bay pulled off the upset of the week winning in the Superdome as a 10 point underdog.  This week I’m going back to the well with Houston.  The offense of Tampa Bay is horrible.  Sure they looked better last week, but this team is still struggling, and the NO isn’t really known for their defense.  Houston will have the best front 7 that Tampa has faced this year, I expect JJ Watt to cause havoc for the rookie QB.  I really wish Houston would run the ball more this year, like they did last year.  If they do that then they should be able to control this game.  I have Houston on a key number in 3 of my 5 systems, and I’m pulling the trigger on the Texans again this week.

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-2.5):

Cincinnati has the advantage in 4 of my 5 systems, and when those 4 systems have agreed, the results have been fabulous.  They also hit a key number in my Vegas style system, which is a very successful system.  The Ravens are simply throwing the ball to much this year.  They need to get back to controlling the clock and running the ball, and then using that nasty defense of theirs to take command.  The Bengals have a good pass defense, and should be able to hold their own.  Also, Baltimore plays next Thursday at Pittsburgh, so they might be planning for both this week. With the 2 headed monster that the Bengals have in their backfield, and the Ravens defense not looking like their old selves, I expect Cincy to control this game.  Do yourself the favor though, spend the extra $10 and buy the half point, this one will come down to the wire.

Oakland at Cleveland (-3):

Yes, Oakland won against Baltimore last week at home.  Yes, they stopped them when they needed to, but this team has been outperformed in both games.  They were outgained in yards and first downs in both games, which tells me they had some big plays last week against Baltimore that allowed them to pull the upset.  Clevelands defense has been playing exceptionally well this year, while they have had some trouble stopping the run, they have gotten a lot of pressure on the QB when he is passing.  That doesn’t bode well for a Raiders team that is throwing the ball 30 times a game and running less than 20 times a game.  The Browns have also been able to run the ball well, going for over 100 yards in both games.  This is the first road game of the season for Oakland, and they have to travel east, which is always harder than travelling west.  Cleveland is on a key number in 2 of my 5 systems, and 4 of my 5 systems find value in the Browns this week.  Look for Cleveland to start out 2-1.

San Francisco at Arizona (-6.5):

Arizona is a different team with Carson Palmer at the helm.  The offense has been clicking on all cylinders so far this year.  The defense has surprising not played at the level expected, which probably has more to do with Bowles leaving for a HC job than anything.  The personnel is still the same, so the ability is still there.  San Francisco has been running the ball a lot the first 2 games, but when they fell behind last week against Pittsburgh they had to rely on the pass, which isn’t necessarily their strong suite.  Arizona is on a key number in 2 of my 5 systems, and 3 of the systems show value in the Cardinals.  I just don’t see San Francisco being able to keep up with the Cardinals offense in scoring in this game.

Alright, there are my 4 picks for Sunday.  I do have another Monday night special to post, but we’ll put that one in it’s own blog later.  Good luck and play responsibly.