College Football Orange Bowl

Got back on the right track yesterday as backers of Mississippi State.  That win brings bowl record to 5-4.  It’s New Years Eve, which means we have 4 teams battling for the national championship starting tonight.  It’s a night I’ve been waiting for.  I’m anxious to see both games, but I’m particularly interested in the Orange Bowl.  Here are the game insights and a free pick for the Orange Bowl.

If you like college basketball or just looking for more action, check out my free picks in my college basketball blog.  You can find them HERE

Oklahoma (-3.5) vs Clemson

Orange Bowl, Miami, FL

Well Clemson did it, they ran the table and burst into the playoffs.  Well they were the number 1 ranked team by the committee all season.  Not saying they were wrong, Clemson definitely is deserving, but I don’t believe they are the best team.  I believe they are playing the best team.  So, first things first, buy that half point and get Oklahoma -3.  Now here’s why.  It’s not that I disrespect the ACC, but much of the argument that I laid out yesterday about going against North Carolina State applies.  Sure Clemson went undefeated, but who have they really played?  Sure they beat Notre Dame, but that was by 2 at home, and they needed help at the end.  In that game they were outgained by 136 yards, but they won the turnover battle by 3 in that game, and were lucky to survive.  They beat Florida State by 10, but that game was also at home.  Against FSU they had 151 more yards, but it was winning the turnover battle that really sprung them to victory.  When you look at the road games they played in, they really only dominated 1 game and that was the 58 point victory over Miami Fl.  They beat Louisville by 3, NC State by 15, Syracuse by 10 and South Carolina by 5.  In the ACC championship game they beat North Carolina by 8. 

Now let’s take a quick look at how the ACC teams have done in bowl games so far.  Miami FL lost to Washington State.  Duke beat Indiana by 3, but needed overtime to win that shoot out.  Virginia Tech squeaked out a 3 point victory against Tulsa!  Pittsburgh was blown out by Navy.  North Carolina was beaten by Baylor, and a 3^rd string QB.  NC State got smoked by Mississippi State.  Finally Louisville beat Texas A&M, but that was after the Aggies had 2 QB’s transfer after the season.  To say that is unimpressive is an understatement.

Why Oklahoma?  Well a few things.  They have a dominate offense that averages 543 yards per game.  Sure that was overall, but on the road they averaged 490 yards, so not much of a fall off.  They have an average margin of victory of 25 points per game overall and 26 points per game on the road.  They had to play at Tennessee, at Kansas State, at Baylor and at Oklahoma State.  They also played at Kansas, but they suck and don’t count as a football team.  The computer ratings say that on a neutral field Oklahoma should be a -6.5 point favorite.  At -3, that’s 3.5 points of value.  I’m throwing my weight behind the Sooners.

Good Luck today, and be sure to check back for other bowl games.

College Football Belk Bowl

Air Force kept shooting itself in the foot yesterday, and it cost me.  That brings my bowl record to a miserable 4-4 record.  But it's bowl season, and college football has 4 more bowls for us today.  I like the matchup in the Belk Bowl.

Also, if you like college basketball, I have 6 free picks for today's games in my basketball blog.  You can find that through this link.

Mississippi State (-6.5) vs North Carolina State
Belk Bowl, Charlotte, NC
Mississippi State has the better offense.  North Carolina State has the better defense.  The NC State defensive statistics are flawed though, as the first 4 games of the season against non-conference opponents really padded the stats.  In fact, they haven't really played a passing team, nor an offense as potent as Mississippi State this season.  The closest was Clemson and they lost by 15 in that game and were outgained by 234 yards.  Plus to me this boils down to conference.  Would you rather have a middle of the pack SEC team or a middling ACC team?  NC State had a losing record in the ACC.  In fact they only had 3 ACC wins and those were against Wake Forest, Boston College and Syracuse.  Mississippi State beat in conference opponents Auburn, Kentucky, Missouri and Arkansas.  I'm really impressed by the Missouri victory, as they won that by 18 points, and Prescott threw for over 300 yards in that game.  If you saw any Missouri game this year, you know that was a difficult task, as they probably had the best defense in the nation.  I'm throwing my weight behind the SEC and taking Mississippi State in this one.

Good Luck today.

College Football Armed Forces Bowl free pick

No official picks yesterday, so still standing at 4-3 in Bowl Games so far.  We have a few good ones today, and I’m starting with the Armed Forces Bowl.

Air Force (+7) vs California

Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth, TX

Those that have been with me for a while, know that I like teams that can play defense and run the ball.  It’s usually a good formula for winning spread bets.  In the Armed Forces bowl we get a team that fits that criteria in Air Force.  We also get the points.  Air Force has the #2 rated offense, and averages 322 rushing yards per game.  California has the #103 rated rush defense, and allows 204 rushing yards per game.  That doesn’t seem like a good matchup for the Golden Bears defense.  I think it’s a tremendous opportunity for the Air Force offense though.

California is a passing team.  The have the #5 rated pass offense, and the #86 rated rushing offense, but the passing game is so strong that they have the #8 overall rated offense.  This is a team that averages 370 passing yards per game, and they do have a NFL caliber QB running the offense.  Air Force counters that with the #23 rated defense overall, and they measure out defending the pass better than the run.

I’m going with the rushing team that plays defense and taking the points with Air Force.  In the bowl games that I’ve seen so far, passing teams have been slow out the gate as the timing has been disrupted from such a long layoff.  With the fact that Air Force defends the pass well anyways is a plus. You also know they will be ready as a disciplined military program, which is another plus.  I just don’t see California being able to blow this team out.  Good Luck, and check for other bowl games.

College Football Bowl Games, Monday, December 28, 2015

Well that escalated quickly.  An 0-2 day on Saturday in bowl games brings the record to 4-3.  I hate it when that happens.  There are 2 bowl games today, the Military Bowl and the Quick Lane Bowl.  Where do they come up with these bowl names?  I’m going to break down both games for you and include a pick if I talk myself into it.

Pittsburgh vs Navy (-3)

Military Bowl, Annapolis, MD

This is a home game for Navy, and they also played a lot more recently than Pittsburgh in the annual Army/Navy game that is held the week after championship weekend.  This will be the second time Pittsburgh has faced the triple option, as they played Georgia Tech during the regular season.  In that game Georgia Tech rushed for 376 yards, which is a lot, but that game was on the road for Pitt, and they only had a week to prepare.  A team usually does a better job the second time they face the option, and Pitt has had a lot of time to prepare for the triple option, so I expect them to fare much better this time around.  On offense, Pittsburgh is very well balanced in the rush/pass yards department, with nearly a 50/50 split.  That means they run the ball very well, but not the best passing team.  That plays right into Navy’s hands as they are better at defending the run than they are the pass.  I’m not sure if Pittsburgh can rush for enough yards to keep this game close, so I’m not picking a side here, though if I had to I would probably take the points as Pittsburgh was  5-1 ATS on the road this season.

Central Michigan vs Minnesota (-4.5)

Quick Lane Bowl, Detroit, MI

This is an odd game.  It really is a very good matchup.  Central Michigan should have the crowd advantage as Detroit is just 155 miles from their campus.  Central has won 5 of their last 6 games, with only loss coming against Toledo.  They have been tested against Power 5 schools facing Oklahoma State, Syracuse and Michigan State to start the year.  The defense played really well in all 3 of those game, but the offense just couldn’t get going, especially against Oklahoma State and Michigan State.  Minnesota’s offense has been horrendous this year, rated #104 in the nation.  They have averaged 143, rushing yards and 214 passing yards per game.  CMU counters with 101 rushing and 313 passing.  While Minnesota is more balance, I believe CMU has the better offense.  The problem is that Minnesota has the #15 rated pass defense and only allow 182 passing yards per game.  They can’t stop the run to save their lives though allowing 172 rushing yards per game for the #71 rated rush defense.  CMU’s strength is on defense, which is rated #16 overall.  They allow 138 rush yards (#30) and 191 pass yards (#24).  This game is a coin flip, and because of that I’m passing.

So no picks for either game.  What I’m intrigued by though is a teaser play.  I’m going to do a 2 team 6.5 point teaser with both underdogs.  That will give me Pitt +9.5 and Central Michigan +11.  Good Luck today.

NFL week 16 free picks

Last week was a 1-2 week with a 1-1 split on Sunday.  I was on a couple other games that I didn't include in my blog that won, but those don't count because they weren't included in the official picks. It was definitely a square weekend the last couple of weeks with all the big favorites covering.  Back at it this week, even if I'm a little late in posting.  Here are my picks.

Chicago Bears (+3) at Tampa Bay

Jacksonville (+3) at New Orleans

New England (-1.5) at New York Jets

running behind so no explanations provided.  Good luck this week.

College Football Bowl Games, December 26, 2015

The bowl season has been good to us so far, with a 4-1 record.  We didn’t have any games to watch yesterday, but there are 6 games being played today.  Before I get into my picks and game insights I want to give a word of warning.  Just because there are 6 bowl games, and they are staggered starts (so you can watch them all) don’t bet on all of them.  If you don’t have a strong feeling/suspicion about a game, just leave it alone.  Find the 1 or 2 games that you feel the most comfortable with, and hammer them.  With that said, let’s talk bowl games.

Southern Miss (+8.5) vs Washington

Heart of Dallas Bowl, Dallas, TX

The last time Southern Miss played, I picked them against Western Kentucky in the Conference USA championship game.  That play didn’t work out, as Western Kentucky showed up in the 2^nd half and ran away with the game.  WKU really needed to get the offense going in order to come back in that game, they also benefited from winning the turnover battle by 3.  That wasn’t a typical performance by Southern Miss, and I’m looking for them to bounce back this game against Washington.  Both teams have highly rated defenses, with Washington rated #29 in rushing, #55 in passing and #28 overall.  Southern Miss is rated #34 in rushing, #65 in passing and #39 overall.  So you can see they have similar defenses.

The key to this game is the offenses.  Washington is rated #93 in rushing and #54 in passing for a #71 rating overall.  Southern Miss has a potent, well balanced offense with the #42 rushing rating, #12 passing and #10 overall.  While Washington’s defense is probably going to give Southern Miss some trouble in the passing game, it’s the rushing game I’m looking at.  On the road this season, Washington has allowed an average of 171 rushing yards per game.  That plays right into Southern Miss’s hands as they are averaging 192 rushing yards per game.  That high average for Washington rush defense isn’t because of 1 or 2 games either.  Here are rushing yards allowed for all away games: 185, 190, 188, 144, 148, and that last one was against Oregon State, who was one of the worst teams in the nation this year.  I know they have better rushing statistics overall, but that’s because of Sacramento State getting 11 rushing yards and Washington State getting 31.  Sacramento State is an FCS school, and Washington State is the “air-raid” offense that is pass, pass, pass and pass again.  I’m going with the team that can run the ball, against the team that has troube in stopping the run.  Oh and Washington has to travel 2,108 yards for their bowl game, while Southern Miss only has to go 490 miles. 

UCLA (-6.5) vs Nebraska

Foster Farms Bowl, Santa Clara, CA

This game is one that I’ve been targeting since the matchup was announced.  While most people have been saying don’t overlook this Nebraska team, I’m telling you to do exactly that.  Nebraska has the #37 rated offense, but that is lopsided and pass heavy as the rush offense is rated #73 and the pass is #30.  UCLA counters that with the #24 rated offense, but are more balanced with the #49 rush attack and #24 pass attack.  To me this is a benefit to UCLA as in all the bowl games I’ve seen so far, defense and running have been way ahead of passing.  Nebraska relies on the pass a lot.  Now let’s look at defense.  Nebraska is rated #8 in rushing defense, but #123 in passing defense for an overall rating of #72.  That’s not good, because when UCLA gets it’s passing game going, Nebraska won’t be able to stop them at all.  UCLA on the other hand has the #89 rush defense, but they also have the #41 passing defense for a #63 overall rating.  Nebraska needs the pass on offense, and UCLA’s better on passing defense.  That is another benefit for UCLA.  Finally, UCLA has to travel 345 miles, not far.  Nebraska has to travel 1,647 miles.  I’m going with the Bruins in this game.

Good Luck today.  Come back for my NFL picks.  Also, I’ll continue to provide bowl game insights and free picks as I see good opportunities arise.